ABC-Ipsos Poll: Harris Surges Ahead of Trump by Single Digit
With the final stretch of the 2024 US presidential race now at hand, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged ahead of former President Donald Trump by a single digit, based on a new ABC-Ipsos poll of likely voters. The survey found Harris with 51% support to Trump’s 47%, indicating that the election was still within striking distance of both candidates.
The survey gives more significance to the battlefield states, as these were likely to seal the ultimate fate of the elections. The last couple of weeks have seen intense campaignings by both parties on crucial states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
It’s a neck and neck race, but voter preference is determined by several specific issues.
The ABC-Ipsos poll reveals how the 2024 race is pretty tight, with both Harris and Trump fighting for voter trust on key issues. Voters are most concerned about the economy, immigration, and healthcare, and each candidate has drastically different policies.
Trump, in his quest to mount a comeback, has zeroed his campaign on reviving the economy and opposing Democratic policies on immigration. Harris has centered her campaign on increasing healthcare, action on climate change, and protection of women’s reproductive rights.
The two candidates carry heavy disapproval ratings, indicating that it is a polarized campaign. Some undecided voters are mulling over third-party candidates or not voting at all and are making the race rather complicated.
The two presidential campaigns are stepping up their campaigns in several key battleground states, where the margin of the contest between the two candidates is razor-thin. In fact, a latest poll has indicated that even such states as Wisconsin and Nevada may well turn out to be crucial.
Republicans are counting on get-out-the-vote operations and economic rhetoric to recapture those white suburbanites, while the Democrats want to mobilize voters under 30 years of age, minorities, and women-the Democratic coalition-it has added up to over the past few decades.
“It all comes down to turnout,” said a campaign strategist. “The race may be decided by a handful of votes in key counties.”
Polling Accuracy and Methodology in Controversy
Such arguments have also resulted in increased debate over the reliability of the polls and the methodologies adopted. Supporters of Trump point out past election polling mishaps where an understatement of Republican turnout can be incorrectly assessed, and Democratic analysts are relatively optimistic in admitting the shortcomings of polling. In this sort of election, polling might not really cover everything.
It is easy to over-react to individual polls,” political analysts said. “Polling’s a snapshot of the moment,” said one political analyst. “With weeks to go, things can still change quickly.”.
According to the latest ABC-Ipsos poll, the race is really a close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. There is a mere 4-point gap separating them. And when the competition becomes more aggressive on each side, the deciding factor is likely to be the voters’ turnout in battleground states.
Now, with Election Day closing in, the stakes have never been higher. Each side will pull out all stops to ensure every vote is accounted for as they hurtle toward Election Day. The question now is: whether Harris’s lead holds, or whether a late comeback from Trump makes history. However, it’s clear this race is by far not over.
