As the United States heads into the Harris-Trump presidential race, a definitive outcome may not be known on election night. Due to expected close margins and key swing states with extended ballot-counting processes, the nation may have to wait days to know the next president.

Why Election Results May Be Delayed

Over recent decades, Americans have frequently stayed up late, awaiting final calls in tight races. In 2000, a tense election night introduced the now-familiar red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) state map when news anchor Tim Russert highlighted the pivotal Florida results. For this election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump virtually tied in polls, decisive results could depend on a handful of swing states, particularly Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which have absentee ballot procedures that could require days to finalize. However, if Harris wins the remaining swing states decisively, her victory could be called sooner.

How News Organizations Make Election Calls

US news outlets don’t officially declare winners; rather, they rely on vote counts from election offices to forecast outcomes. Organizations like the Associated Press (AP) have strict guidelines for declaring winners, with a policy of “absolute certainty.” These calls are made by specialized decision desks staffed by statisticians who use models to predict vote counts state-by-state. “Our standard is absolute certainty,” stated David Scott of AP, emphasizing that calls aren’t made until data supports a clear outcome. Each network’s decision-making is independent, meaning they may call states at different times.

Why 2024 Results May Be Faster Than 2020

In 2020, absentee ballots heavily influenced the timeline, delaying results by days in several states. This year, fewer mail-in ballots are expected, and key states like Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan have expanded pre-canvassing procedures, allowing officials to process ballots before election day. Organizations such as Protect Democracy project results will arrive faster in states with larger margins.

Factors That Could Delay Results

Several scenarios could slow the process, particularly if margins are narrow (under 0.5%), prompting recounts or legal scrutiny. Pennsylvania, where mail ballots can’t be opened until election day, could experience delays similar to those in 2020, as could Wisconsin, where officials may not report full results until the early morning after the election. If recounts or legal battles arise over specific ballots, the wait could extend further. Swing states like Nevada can accept ballots postmarked by election day up to the following Saturday, which could add days to the count.

Early Calls and Patterns in Voting

Expect early calls in East Coast states with clear leads, while tight races in places like Arizona and Nevada may be undecided on election night. A pattern known as the “red mirage” and “blue shift” may again appear, where early returns show Republicans leading due to same-day voting, followed by a Democratic uptick as mail-in ballots are counted. This “blue shift” was evident in Wisconsin in 2020 when late-counted ballots changed the apparent lead.

The Electoral College and Why Popular Vote Doesn’t Decide the Presidency

In the US electoral system, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, which are awarded by state rather than by national popular vote. Each state’s electoral votes are based on its congressional representation, and with the exceptions of Nebraska and Maine, the winning candidate in each state receives all of that state’s electoral votes.

Congressional Control May Also Be Unclear on Election Night

Determining which party controls Congress may take time. With 435 races nationwide, close contests and recounts could delay results in some districts. As Drew McCoy from Decision Desk HQ noted, “It’s about waiting for the data and seeing what it tells you.”

In summary, while some states may be decided on election night, the full picture of the presidential race and congressional control may take days or even weeks to emerge. In close states, the wait will require patience as officials and decision desks ensure accuracy and transparency in their projections.

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